How it works

An automated process reads semiconductor research, records source-grounded claims in our own words, and updates the Board: model views on themes such as chip packaging, memory, foundry capacity, networking, and datacenter power. Each theme has a score from -2 to +2, a confidence level, and cited reasoning. Expanding a row explains what a positive score means for that theme. The system also keeps a dated list of forecasts so its confidence can be checked against real outcomes.

Source articles and internal formulas are never published. Only original semii analysis and model outputs appear here. Free includes the live Board, track record, forecast scores, and this explanation. Pro currently adds standardized stock-level model implications relative to SOX and normalized dollar illustrations based on a common reference amount.

A long historical test can look impressive: apply today’s method to old research and chart the result. But today’s method was designed after much of that history happened. Knowing the outcomes can affect which themes and rules seem important, even unintentionally. That hindsight can make past results look better than what the system could repeat.

So the site keeps two records separate and never averages them together:

• The live record contains Board views saved after launch, before the period being measured had ended. This is the only performance record, shown solid and green.
• The historical test rebuilds earlier Board views after later outcomes were already known. It is shown dashed and grey, clearly labeled as hindsight-built, so you can inspect it — never as evidence of skill.

If the live record is empty, the site says so and shows nothing in its place. It never borrows a historical result to fill the headline. The live record grows one recorded model state at a time.

Every Board change is saved as a git commit. Git is software version history: each commit records what changed and links that version to the one before it. Altering an earlier state also changes the later hash-linked history.

The track record is generated from those commits. A model state counts as live because of when it entered version history, not the publication date on the research behind it. The version stamp in the footer of every page — like record 2e7ba6c — identifies the record used to generate that page. Git provides an exact internal history; an independent public timestamp is a separate verification layer.