Track record
Nine forecasts have been checked. All nine happened. The live record began on 8 July 2026.
Brier score 0.089
how far its odds sat from what happened · 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip
Averaged over the time each forecast’s odds stood — 4 averaged, 5 at original odds. Read the correction →
Each square is one checked forecast, placed at the odds recorded with its result. The score and the plot measure different things. Green means it happened; coral means it didn’t.
As more are checked, the squares should land where their odds put them: about seven in ten of the 70% squares green, nine in ten of the 90% ones.
Nine is a small number, and eight of the nine were written during the historical build rather than live. Treat this as the start of a record, not proof of one.
The nine that were checked
it saidRenting an H100 gets cheaper than it was in March 2025.88%Dec 2025
measured at window end, · checked
report date unknown
first recorded · before the live record began
checked under the earlier review process
scored at its original odds · recorded after its window ended
as written in the record
The prevailing on-demand market rental rate for an H100 SXM (per SemiAnalysis / public neocloud list pricing) is below the 2025-03 ~$2.99/hr/GPU level
A Chinese company builds more than 1,000 humanoid robots.88%Dec 2025
measured at window end, · checked
reported
first recorded · before the live record began
checked under the earlier review process
scored at its original odds · recorded after its window ended
as written in the record
At least one Chinese company has cumulatively mass-produced >1,000 units of a commercial humanoid robot