Five open forecasts
Each one is a statement that will turn out true or false, shown with the model’s latest recorded odds.
Neither Anthropic nor OpenAI sees its API revenue pace fall quarter over quarter in the second half of 2026.85%
still open · check by
first recorded · before the live record began
The odds were revised: 80% on → 85% on .
as written in the record
Neither Anthropic nor OpenAI's API/token-revenue run-rate posts a sequential (Q/Q) decline in any quarter of 2H26 — i.e. the enterprise "token-budget wall" does not dent aggregate API growth (per SemiAnalysis Tokenomics / credible reporting)
Meta signs or launches a deal to sell outside customers on-demand compute or hosted Claude or OpenAI access.80%
still open · check by
first recorded · before the live record began
The odds were revised: 75% on → 80% on .
as written in the record
Meta enters the merchant compute / token-as-a-service market — signs or launches a deal to sell external customers large-scale on-demand compute OR hosted private frontier-lab (Anthropic Claude / OpenAI) model instances or token access — per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting
The six biggest coding assistants reach a combined $100B yearly revenue pace, on SemiAnalysis's model.55%
still open · check by
first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
The six largest coding-assistant players' combined ARR reaches ≥$100B (per SemiAnalysis Tokenomics model)
SemiAnalysis's Dark Output Monitor logs a firm winning a court fight over AI work, or an insurer covering it.55%
still open · check by
first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
SemiAnalysis's Dark Output Monitor records at least one Tier-5 (a firm successfully defending AI-produced work in a court fight) or Tier-6 (an insurer underwriting AI-work risk) displacement activity, per SemiAnalysis
Claude Code writes at least 20% of public GitHub commits each day, on SemiAnalysis's count.48%
still open · check by
first recorded · before the live record began
The odds were revised: 35% on → 40% on → 48% on .
as written in the record
Claude Code authors ≥20% of daily public GitHub commits (per SemiAnalysis Tokenomics / GitHub methodology)
Checked against SemiAnalysis's reporting, company filings, or credible press.
How forecasts are checked