Eleven open forecasts
Each one is a statement that will turn out true or false, shown with the model’s latest recorded odds.
ChatGPT ships in-chat checkout that buys third-party goods or services for users and takes a fee.90%
still open · check by
last looked
first recorded · before the live record began
The odds were revised: 72% on → 90% on .
as written in the record
ChatGPT ships a native agentic-commerce / in-chat checkout capability that completes third-party purchases (goods or services) on a user's behalf, monetized via transaction / affiliate / take-rate fees (per OpenAI announcement or credible reporting)
Anthropic's annual revenue run-rate reaches at least $100B.85%
still open · check by
first recorded · before the live record began
The odds were revised: 50% on → 85% on .
as written in the record
Anthropic's annualized revenue run-rate (ARR) reaches ≥$100B (per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting)
Anthropic announces or closes a new share sale valuing it at $300B or more.85%
still open · check by
last looked
first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
Anthropic closes or announces a primary equity round at a valuation ≥$300B (per credible reporting / filings)
CoreWeave or another provider other than Microsoft serves OpenAI's production inference.85%
still open · check by
first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
CoreWeave (or another non-Microsoft provider) is serving OpenAI production inference workloads (per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting), breaking Microsoft's historical ~100% share of OpenAI inference
xAI raises at least $10B by selling new shares in a fresh funding round.80%
still open · check by
first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
xAI closes a new primary equity funding round of ≥$10B (per credible reporting / filings)
Anthropic and OpenAI take more than 27% of new AI compute added in 2027, on SemiAnalysis's model.70%
still open · check by
first recorded · live
as written in the record
Anthropic + OpenAI account for >27% of net-new AI-compute GW in calendar 2027 in SemiAnalysis's Tokenomics/Datacenter model, including indirect hyperscaler capacity
At year-end 2026, Meta has more total AI compute than OpenAI and more than Anthropic.65%
still open · check by
first recorded · live
as written in the record
Meta's realized total AI compute at year-end 2026 exceeds both OpenAI's and Anthropic's individually (per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting)
Anthropic posts at least $1B of GAAP operating profit in the third quarter of 2026.65%
still open · check by
last looked
first recorded · live
as written in the record
Anthropic reports or is credibly reported to have generated ≥$1B GAAP EBIT in 3Q26
One frontier training run reaches 1e27 FLOP, about 100 times GPT-4, on Epoch AI's estimates.57%
still open · check by
first recorded · before the live record began
The odds were revised: 55% on → 57% on .
as written in the record
At least one frontier AI training run reaches ≥1e27 FLOP (≈ +2 OOMs over GPT-4's ~1e25) per Epoch AI's training-compute estimates — the physical-compute leg of the ~5-OOM-by-2027 "counting the OOMs" forecast
Anthropic and OpenAI together hold at least 56.3% of all AI-lab compute at the end of 2027, on SemiAnalysis's model.50%
still open · check by
first recorded · live
as written in the record
Anthropic + OpenAI account for ≥56.3% of all lab compute at 2027 year-end in SemiAnalysis's Datacenter Industry Model
Anthropic ends 2027 at an annual revenue run-rate of at least $300B.45%
still open · check by
first recorded · live
as written in the record
Anthropic's ending ARR for 2027 reaches ≥$300B (per SemiAnalysis Tokenomics / Anthropic filing / credible reporting)
Checked against SemiAnalysis's reporting, company filings, or credible press.
How forecasts are checked