Four open forecasts
Each one is a statement that will turn out true or false, shown with the model’s latest recorded odds.
China's big cloud companies have at least 3.92GW of leased datacenter capacity outside China at the end of 2029, on SemiAnalysis's model.70%
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as written in the record
Chinese hyperscalers have at least 3.92GW of overseas leased datacenter capacity at 2029 year-end, per SemiAnalysis Datacenter Industry Model
China publishes no comprehensive AI legislation draft by 2027-03-31 containing any of these five frontier controls: a compute/capability threshold, training-run registration, pre-release safety cases, mandatory incident reporting, or regulator shutdown authority80%
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first recorded · live
as written in the record
China publishes no comprehensive AI legislation draft by 2027-03-31 containing any of these five frontier controls: a compute/capability threshold, training-run registration, pre-release safety cases, mandatory incident reporting, or regulator shutdown authority
Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei, ByteDance and Baidu together have at least 20.58GW of datacenter capacity at the end of 2030, on SemiAnalysis's China model.70%
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Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei, ByteDance, and Baidu have combined datacenter capacity of at least 20.58GW at 2030 year-end, per SemiAnalysis China Datacenter Model
Nvidia ships a B30A-class Blackwell chip for China that beats the H20 on performance.52%
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first recorded · before the live record began
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Nvidia ships a Blackwell-based China SKU exceeding the H20 in performance (B30A-class), per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting
Checked against SemiAnalysis's reporting, company filings, or credible press.
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