Four open forecasts
Each one is a statement that will turn out true or false, shown with the model’s latest recorded odds.
CXMT goes public on Shanghai's STAR Market, with its shares trading.90%
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last looked
first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
CXMT (Changxin Memory) completes its STAR Market IPO — shares begin trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting / filings)
China's output of competitive datacenter AI chips stays far below the West's ~5M units a year.90%
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first recorded · before the live record began
The odds were revised: 85% on → 88% on → 85% on → 90% on .
as written in the record
China's domestic production of competitive datacenter AI accelerators remains far below the ~5M units/yr scale of Western-ecosystem demand
China builds under about 1M domestic AI chips with HBM in 2026.62%
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first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
China's total 2026 output of HBM-equipped domestic AI accelerators (Huawei Ascend + peers) stays below ~1M units, per SemiAnalysis
A shipping Huawei Kirin or Ascend chip splits one active logic block across bonded 3D tiers.50%
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first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
A shipping Huawei/HiSilicon product (Kirin or Ascend) uses "LogicFolding" — 3D-stacked ACTIVE logic splitting one logic block across face-to-face hybrid-bonded tiers (beyond cache/IO stacking) — per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting
Checked against SemiAnalysis's reporting, company filings, or credible press.
How forecasts are checked