Three open forecasts
Each one is a statement that will turn out true or false, shown with the model’s latest recorded odds.
No NAND maker mass-produces 3D NAND that stores five bits per cell.85%
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first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
No NAND maker has 5-bits-per-cell (penta-level-cell) 3D NAND in high-volume production, per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting
DDR5 contract prices end 2026 at least 1.5 times their fourth-quarter 2025 level.75%
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first recorded · before the live record began
The odds were revised: 68% on → 75% on .
as written in the record
DDR5 contract DRAM pricing exits 2026 (4Q26) at least 1.5× its 4Q25 level (per SemiAnalysis Memory Model / TrendForce contract-price data)
A DRAM maker reaches mass production on the 1d node, the step after 1c.72%
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first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
At least one DRAM maker has 1d-node (post-1c) DRAM in high-volume production (per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting)
Checked against SemiAnalysis's reporting, company filings, or credible press.
How forecasts are checked