Six open forecasts
Each one is a statement that will turn out true or false, shown with the model’s latest recorded odds.
DDR and LPDDR stay at least 90% of CXMT's revenue through 2026, with HBM minimal.80%
still open · check by
last looked
first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
CXMT's revenue stays overwhelmingly commodity DRAM — DDR + LPDDR ≥90% of revenue, HBM a minimal contributor — through 2026 (per SemiAnalysis Memory Model / CXMT filings)
A shipping HBM4 accelerator uses a custom logic-process HBM base die that adds function beyond a standard one.70%
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first recorded · before the live record began
The odds were revised: 62% on → 70% on .
as written in the record
A shipping HBM4-generation AI accelerator (e.g. Nvidia Rubin or AMD MI400) uses a custom, logic-process HBM base die adding function beyond a standard off-the-shelf base die (memory-controller offload, off-package LPDDR / 2nd-rank memory, or beachfront I/O), per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting
SK Hynix's average 2027 HBM4 price to Nvidia runs at least 10% below Samsung's, on SemiAnalysis's numbers.70%
still open · check by
first recorded · live
as written in the record
SemiAnalysis's average 2027 HBM4 price to Nvidia from SK Hynix is at least 10% below its average price to Nvidia from Samsung
A production AI accelerator ships with 4-Hi HBM4 or HBM4E stacks.68%
still open · check by
first recorded · live
as written in the record
At least one production AI accelerator ships with 4-Hi HBM4 or HBM4E stacks, per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting
Micron supplies under 5% of Nvidia's Rubin R200 HBM in Rubin's first 12 months of shipments.62%
still open · check by
last looked
first recorded · before the live record began
The odds were revised: 55% on → 62% on .
as written in the record
Micron holds <5% share of Nvidia R200 (Rubin) HBM supply in Rubin's first 12 months of shipment (SK Hynix + Samsung split ~all of it), per SemiAnalysis
Samsung qualifies HBM4 and ships it in volume to Nvidia or AMD.50%
still open · check by
last looked
first recorded · before the live record began
The odds were revised: 40% on → 50% on .
as written in the record
Samsung has qualified and is shipping HBM4 in volume to a leading merchant AI-accelerator customer (Nvidia or AMD), per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting
Checked against SemiAnalysis's reporting, company filings, or credible press.
How forecasts are checked