Two open forecasts
Each one is a statement that will turn out true or false, shown with the model’s latest recorded odds.
No fab uses nanoimprint lithography in mass production for a critical layer of advanced logic or DRAM.90%
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first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
No fab has used nanoimprint lithography (NIL) in high-volume manufacturing for a critical layer of an advanced logic or DRAM chip (per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting)
No fab uses X-ray lithography in mass production for a critical layer of an advanced logic chip.85%
still open · check by
first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
No fab (Substrate or otherwise) has used X-ray lithography (XRL) in high-volume manufacturing for a critical layer of an advanced logic chip (per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting)
Checked against SemiAnalysis's reporting, company filings, or credible press.
How forecasts are checked