Six open forecasts

still open · check by 31 Dec 2028

first recorded 6 Jul 2026 · before the live record began

as written in the record
Nvidia's Rubin Ultra (Kyber / NVL576-class) rack still uses COPPER — not co-packaged optics — for its NVLink scale-up interconnect, per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting

still open · check by 31 Dec 2027

first recorded 7 Jul 2026 · before the live record began

as written in the record
Nvidia's production Rubin Ultra Kyber rack supports pluggable optical transceivers / AECs for scale-out (retains an OSFP-cage option, not a Mid-Board-Optical-Module-only design), per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting

still open · check by 31 Dec 2026

first recorded 6 Jul 2026 · before the live record began

The odds were revised: 58% on 6 Jul 2026 → 60% on 6 Jul 2026.

as written in the record
Nvidia has begun shipping / made generally available a co-packaged-optics (CPO) Spectrum-X Ethernet switch (512×800G-class)

still open · check by 30 Jun 2027

first recorded 6 Jul 2026 · before the live record began

as written in the record
Broadcom's Scale-Up Ethernet (SUE) is shipping in high-volume production AI accelerator racks (per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting)

still open · check by 31 Dec 2028

first recorded 6 Jul 2026 · before the live record began

as written in the record
AWS Trainium4 ships or is announced with a co-packaged-optics / optical scale-up interconnect (Celestial AI "Photonic Fabric" or equivalent), per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting

still open · check by 31 Dec 2029

last looked 16 Oct 2026

first recorded 7 Jul 2026 · before the live record began

as written in the record
At least one production AI accelerator rack ships an optical (DWDM or CPO) scale-up interconnect built to the OCI-MSA optical-scale-up specification, per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting