+2Leading-edge wafer capacity
Back to Leading-edge wafer capacityTwo open forecasts
Each one is a statement that will turn out true or false, shown with the model’s latest recorded odds.
Musk's Terafab has not reached 100,000 wafer starts a month.75%
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first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
Musk's Terafab has NOT reached 100k wafer-starts-per-month of production output (its stated 2028 mass-production entry ramp), per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting
AI chips take at least 80% of TSMC's N3-family wafer output in 2027, on SemiAnalysis's model.65%
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first recorded · before the live record began
The odds were revised: 60% on → 65% on .
as written in the record
AI (accelerator + host CPU + networking) accounts for ≥80% of TSMC N3-family wafer output in 2027, per SemiAnalysis Foundry / Accelerator Model
Checked against SemiAnalysis's reporting, company filings, or credible press.
How forecasts are checked