+1Model efficiency (Jevons)
Back to Model efficiency (Jevons)Two open forecasts
Each one is a statement that will turn out true or false, shown with the model’s latest recorded odds.
SemiAnalysis reports an open model matching or beating its era's first closed model within 90 days of its release.60%
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SemiAnalysis reports an open-source model matching or exceeding the first closed model of its post-agentic era on its era-specific curated composite within 90 days of that closed model's public release
At year-end 2026, Meta's and SpaceXAI's best models each outrank Google's best Gemini on the Artificial Analysis index.55%
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At 2026 year-end, both Meta Superintelligence Labs' best public model and SpaceXAI's best public model rank above Google's best public Gemini model on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index
Checked against SemiAnalysis's reporting, company filings, or credible press.
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