Five open forecasts
Each one is a statement that will turn out true or false, shown with the model’s latest recorded odds.
No foundry mass-produces transistors with 2D-material (TMD) channels.94%
still open · check by
first recorded · before the live record began
The odds were revised: 92% on → 93% on → 94% on .
as written in the record
No foundry has 2D-material (TMD) channel transistors in high-volume manufacturing
No foundry mass-produces complementary-FET (CFET) logic transistors.85%
still open · check by
first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
No foundry has complementary-FET (CFET) logic transistors in high-volume manufacturing
No flagship phone chip from Apple, Qualcomm or MediaTek ships on a TSMC A16-class backside-power node.80%
still open · check by
last looked
first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
No flagship smartphone SoC (Apple / Qualcomm / MediaTek) has shipped on a TSMC backside-power node (A16-class)
Intel's 14A node uses high-NA EUV on at least one layer in volume or risk production.70%
still open · check by
first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
Intel's 14A node uses high-NA EUV (ASML EXE-class) for at least one layer in volume/risk production (per Intel or SemiAnalysis disclosure)
TSMC, Samsung or Intel replaces copper with ruthenium in its lowest metal layers on a volume node.50%
still open · check by
first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
At least one leading-edge foundry (TSMC / Samsung / Intel) has introduced ruthenium (Ru) as the main conductor for its lowest metal layers (M0/M1-class), replacing copper, in a high-volume logic node, per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting
Checked against SemiAnalysis's reporting, company filings, or credible press.
How forecasts are checked