20 open forecasts
Each one is a statement that will turn out true or false, shown with the model’s latest recorded odds.
Single-phase direct-to-chip liquid cooling, not immersion, leads new AI racks above 50kW.85%
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first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
Single-phase direct-to-chip liquid cooling (DLC), not immersion, is the dominant cooling method for newly-deployed high-density (>50kW/rack) AI accelerator racks
On-site generation covers more than 50% of new US datacenter capacity added in 2028, on SemiAnalysis's model.80%
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first recorded · before the live record began
The odds were revised: 55% on → 60% on → 68% on → 78% on → 80% on .
as written in the record
Behind-the-meter / onsite generation accounts for >50% of new US datacenter capacity (MW) additions in 2028, per SemiAnalysis Datacenter Industry Model
No AI datacenter of 1MW or more is operating in Earth orbit.80%
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first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
No scaled AI datacenter (≥1 MW of critical IT compute) is operating in Earth orbit, per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting
At year-end 2026, US datacenters with their own on-site power run 2.5–3.5GW of IT capacity, on SemiAnalysis's model.70%
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first recorded · live
as written in the record
US operational datacenter IT capacity powered behind the meter is 2.5-3.5GW at 2026 year-end, per SemiAnalysis Energy / Datacenter Model
Meta's Hyperion campus in Louisiana has at least 1.5GW of critical IT power running.70%
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first recorded · before the live record began
The odds were revised: 55% on → 70% on .
as written in the record
Meta's Hyperion (Louisiana) campus has ≥1.5GW of critical IT power in operation / phase-1 (per SemiAnalysis Datacenter Industry Model or credible reporting)
Doosan Enerbility delivers at least one H-class gas turbine to an xAI Colossus site.68%
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first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
Doosan Enerbility has shipped/delivered at least one H-class gas turbine to xAI for a Colossus site (per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting)
xAI's Memphis water-recycling plant is running and supplying Colossus's cooling water.68%
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last looked
first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
xAI's Colossus (Memphis) water-recycling plant (recycling T.E. Maxson municipal wastewater) is operational and supplying the site's cooling water in production, per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting
TeraWulf's Abernathy datacenter does not deliver its full promised capacity within 2026.65%
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first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
TeraWulf's Abernathy (Fluidstack) datacenter does NOT deliver its full guided capacity within 2026 (slips into 2027+), per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting
Modular, prefabricated builds are at least 30% of live datacenter capacity at end-2028, on SemiAnalysis's model.65%
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first recorded · live
as written in the record
Modular/prefabricated datacenter construction accounts for ≥30% of total live datacenter capacity at 2028 year-end, per the SemiAnalysis Industrials Model
A hyperscaler or Nvidia runs an 800V DC sidecar power rack in a live datacenter.62%
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last looked
first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
At least one hyperscaler or Nvidia has deployed an 800VDC-distribution HVDC power rack (disaggregated sidecar) in a production datacenter (per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting)
ERCOT files its Batch Zero audit verification report by December 10, 2026.60%
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last looked
first recorded · live
as written in the record
ERCOT files its Batch Zero audit verification report by December 10, 2026
The US adds at least 38GW of datacenter IT capacity in calendar 2027, on SemiAnalysis's model.60%
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first recorded · live
as written in the record
US datacenter IT capacity additions in calendar 2027 reach at least 38GW, per SemiAnalysis Datacenter Industry Model
At least one solid-state transformer built for datacenters completes UL certification.55%
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first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
At least one datacenter-targeted Solid-State Transformer (SST) has completed UL certification for datacenter deployment (per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting)
Solaris Energy Infrastructure runs at least 1.1GW of gas turbines for xAI across both Colossus sites.55%
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first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
Solaris Energy Infrastructure (SEI) has ≥1.1GW of gas turbines operating for xAI (Colossus 1+2 combined), per SemiAnalysis / SEI reporting
ERCOT puts its Performance Credit Mechanism capacity-market reform into effect.55%
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last looked
first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
ERCOT implements its Performance Credit Mechanism (PCM) capacity-market reform (per PUCT/ERCOT or SemiAnalysis)
SpaceX and xAI's ground datacenters reach at least 10GW of compute at year-end 2027.55%
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first recorded · live
as written in the record
SpaceX/xAI's terrestrial datacenter compute capacity reaches at least 10GW at 2027 year-end, per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting
GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi take fewer new gas-turbine orders in 2027 than in 2026.55%
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first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
GE Vernova + Siemens Energy + Mitsubishi combined new gas-turbine order intake for calendar-2027 comes in below their calendar-2026 level (per SemiAnalysis Energy Model / company disclosure), confirming 2026 as the order peak
NRG announces or signs an ERCOT gas deal of at least 1GW for 10+ years with a hyperscaler or investment-grade buyer.48%
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last looked
first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
NRG (NRG) announces or signs a large-load BYOG / co-location gas supply deal in ERCOT — a block ≥1GW on a long-dated (10yr+) contract with a hyperscaler / investment-grade counterparty — per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting
Oracle's Project Jupiter campus in New Mexico reaches neither first power nor first customer delivery before 2028.45%
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last looked
first recorded · before the live record began
The odds were revised: 80% on → 45% on .
as written in the record
Oracle's STACK Infrastructure New Mexico Stargate campus (Project Jupiter, Doña Ana County) has NOT reached first power / commercial customer delivery before 2028 — i.e. its 10-June-2026 guide of 1H2027 delivery slips — per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting
Boom Supersonic's Superpower turbine enters commercial production or first powers a datacenter.45%
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first recorded · before the live record began
as written in the record
Boom Supersonic's Superpower aeroderivative gas turbine has entered commercial production or delivered its first datacenter power (per SemiAnalysis / credible reporting)
Checked against SemiAnalysis's reporting, company filings, or credible press.
How forecasts are checked